28 Sept: Stocks up, US$ riding the safe-haven trade. US Presidential debate (Wed), NFP (Fri) will be the key focus this week

28 Sept: Stocks up, US$ riding the safe-haven trade. US Presidential debate (Wed), NFP (Fri) will be the key focus this week

The US stockmarkets ended last week on a positive note, once again led by the tech sector, with the Nasdaq reversing a 3-week downturn, on the back of a good session for Apple, +3%, ahead of its new iphone launch, expected in a couple of week’s time. The Nasdaq actually ended up by 2.2% on Friday and led the DJI and the S+P, both up by around 1.4%, but both indices ended the week with a 4th successive decline. All up, the markets remain rather choppy and this seems set to remain the case in the coming week as traders attempt to find clarity from the current Covid inspired economic downturn; Maybe Wednesday’s US Presidential debate will provide that clarity. Unlikely!

The FX markets saw the US$ end the week on a firm note, despite the soft US data which saw the  August Durable Goods Orders rise by 0.4% mm in August, well below the expectation of 1.2%mm, albeit the 4th straight monthly increase. Aside from the soft data, the dollar is also currently being underpinned by weakness in both the Euro and Sterling as a second wave of the Covid infection threatens further lockdowns throughout the EU and U.K, and this has contributed to the dollar’s strongest weekly rise since March as it acts as safe haven despite the ongoing pandemic emergency to be seen in the US itself.

Elsewhere, oil is trading sideways and avoiding the noise for the time being and sits at 40.00pb. The metals remain very heavy and seem likely to do so a as long as the strength in the dollar continues.

The coming week will be generally quite busy with regards to data although most of the focus is likely to centre on the US Presidential Debate, which takes place on Wednesday during the Asian time zone. Either side of that, Monday is pretty much data free, bar the Dallas Fed Mfg Business Climate, while Tuesday will see the German Preliminary CPI/HICP figures for September and some secondary US data. Wednesday will have a busy Asian session as, aside from the Trump/Biden show, the Chinese Mfg and Non-Mfg PMIs will be released alongside the Australian Building Permits and Private Sector Credit figures for August. Later on Wednesday we see the UKQ2 GDP figure, which should bounce back from the disastrous Q1 reading, the German Unemployment and Retail Sales for August and the EU Preliminary CPI reading for September, while the US will release the September ADP Jobs data as well as the Q2 GDP and the US Personal Consumption/Expenditure. Thursday will see the release of the Japan Tankan, the global Mfg PMIs and the US Personal Consumption/Expenditure Index, while Friday will wind things up with the finalised figures for the Australian Retail Sales, after which the calendar is pretty much empty until the US employment/NFP data for September. Have a good week.

Economic data highlights will include:

Mon: NZ Total Jobs Filled, Japan Coincident Index, Leading Economic Index, US Dallas Fed Mfg Business Climate

Tue: Japan Tokyo CPI, EU Economic Sentiment Indicator, Industrial Confidence, Services Sentiment, Business Climate, German CPI, US Wholesale Inventories, Case Shiller House Price Index, Goods Trade Balance, Consumer Confidence, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory,  Fed Speakers; Williams

Wed: NZ Building Permits, Business Confidence, Activity Outlook, Australian Private Sector Credit, Building Permits,  Japan Industrial Production, Retail Trade, Housing Starts, Construction Orders, China Mfg/Non-Mfg PMIs, Caixin China Manufacturing PMI, US Presidential Debate, UK Total Business Investment, Current Account, Q2 GDP, German Unemployment, Retail Sales, Import Price Index, EU CPI, US ADP Jobs data, Q2 GDP, US Personal Consumption/Expenditure, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, Pending Home Sales, EIA Weekly Crude Stocks Change

Thur: China Holiday, Japan Q3 Tankan,  Australian/EU/UK/US Mfg PMIs, EU PPI, US weekly jobless claims, US Personal Consumption/Expenditure Index,  Total Vehicle Sales, Fed Speaker; Williams

Fri: China Holiday, NZ Consumer Confidence, Japan Unemployment, Australian Retail Sales, US Unemployment / NFP, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, Factory Orders

Market moves, in brief:

FX: DXY 94.58 (+0.26%)

Bonds: US10Y; 0.656% (-2.67%), German 10Y; -0.526% (-4.12%), UK 10Y; 0.188% (-11.35%), Australian 10Y; 0.810% (-0.28%), NZ 10Y; 0.474% (+0.85 %), China 10Y; 3.131% (+1.48%)

Stock Indices: DJI; +1.34%, S+P; +1.60%, NASDAQ; +2.26%, EUStoxx50; -0.71%, FTSE100; +0.34%, Shanghai Composite; -0.12%, ASX200SPI: +1.57%

Metals: Gold $1861 oz (-0.34%), Silver $22.90 oz (-1.06%), Copper $2.9780 lb (+0.42%), Iron Ore $123.28 per tonne (NYMEX) (-0.07%),

Oil: WTI $40.09 pb (-0.12%)

EURUSD: 1.1627
Res  1.1650  1.1675  1.1700
Sup  1.1610  1.1585  1.1560
USDJPY: 105.59
Res  105.70  105.85  106.00
Sup  105.45  105.30  105.15
GBPUSD: 1.2742
Res  1.2785  1.2820  1.2855
Sup  1.2710  1.2675  1.2640
USDCHF: 0.9289
Res  0.9300  0.9320  0.9340
Sup  0.9270  0.9250  0.9230
AUDUSD: 0.7027
Res  0.7055  0.7080  0.7105
Sup  0.7000  0.6975  0.6950
NZDUSD: 0.6545
Res  0.6575  0.6605  0.6635
Sup  0.6525  0.6495  0.6465
S&P.fs: 3287.93
Res  3300.00  3320.00  3340.00
Sup  3275.00  3255.00  3235.00
DJ30.fs: 27048.00
Res  27150.00  27270.00  27395.00
Sup  26955.00  26835.00  26715.00
SPI200.fs: 5959
Res  5970  5985  6000
Sup  5945  5930  5915
XAUUSD: 1861.38
Res  1870.00  1880.00  1890.00
Sup  1850.00  1840.00  1830.00
XAGUSD: 22.92
Res  23.20  23.45  23.75
Sup  22.70  22.45  22.20
WTI.fs: 40.08
Res  40.80  41.80  42.80
Sup  39.40  38.40  37.45


1 Hour Bullish Divergence Bearish Divergence Turning Neutral Neutral – Turning Lower? Bullish Divergence Turning Neutral
4 Hour Possible Basing Formation Turning Higher? Bullish Divergence Possible Topping Formation Oversold – Turning higher? Oversold – Turning higher?
1 Day Turning Lower Neutral – Turning Higher? Turning Lower Turning Higher? Neutral – Turning Lower? Neutral – Turning Lower?
1 Week Possible Topping Formation Neutral – Turning Lower? Turning Lower? Possible Basing Formation Possible Topping Formation Possible Topping Formation
1 Hour Bearish Divergence Up Turning Higher Turning Neutral Turning Neutral Turning Neutral
4 Hour Possible Topping Formation Turning Higher Up Turning Higher? Turning Higher Neutral
1 Day Turning Higher Neutral – Turning Lower? Neutral Turning Lower? Turning Lower Turning Neutral
1 Week Possible Basing Formation Overbought – Turning Lower? Turning Neutral Overbought – Turning Lower? Overbought – Turning Lower? Turning Neutral
1 Hour Neutral Turning Neutral Neutral – Turning Higher? Neutral – Turning Higher? Turning Neutral Oversold – Turning higher?
4 Hour Neutral – Turning Higher? Turning Neutral Possible Topping Formation Turning Higher? Overbought – Turning Lower? Turning Lower
1 Day Turning Lower Turning Neutral Turning Higher Neutral – Turning Lower? Turning Neutral Turning Lower?
1 Week Possible Topping Formation Turning Neutral Turning Neutral Possible Topping Formation Turning Neutral Neutral – Turning Lower?

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