21 Sept: Stocks down again, FX flat at the start of the week. RBNZ Meeting, PMIs (both Wed) in focus this week. Powell speaking on Tuesday.

21 Sept: Stocks down again, FX flat at the start of the week. RBNZ Meeting, PMIs (both Wed) in focus this week. Powell speaking on Tuesday.

While the FX markets tracked mostly sideways on Friday, generally confined to tight ranges, the US stock indices saw declines of around 1% and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell for the third-straight week. The Nasdaq does continue to lead the way lower as investors appear to be rotating out of tech stocks and into other sectors – and the charts suggest that there is more downside to come in the days ahead for the equity markets.

The FX markets ended flat although there is notable renewed demand for the Jpy, possibly as traders eye the gradual decline in stocks, and US$Jpy now has a double bottom at 104.20 with the July 30 low. A break of this level would allow for a deeper decline, so is worth watching.

Elsewhere, the commodities were mixed, with Gold up by 0.3%, while Silver declined by 1%. The industrial metals, Copper and Iron Ore ended the week on a firm note, while oil drifted sideways, with WTI down by 0.16%.

The coming week is going to be pretty thin on the ground in terms of data although there will be a variety of central bankers speaking, with the main event likely to look towards the Fed Chair, Jay Powell who will be speaking on Tuesday, as will the BOE Governor, Bailey.

Aside from the speeches, the main focus will be on Wednesday’s RBNZ Meeting, who are expected to remain on hold, and on the global Flash PMIs. The SNB will have their monthly meeting/Interest Rate Decision on Thursday, with the other interest will lie in the release of the German IFO; Business Climate/Current Assessment/Expectations, while Friday will wind the week up with the US August Durable Goods Orders. Have a good week.

Have a good weekend.

Economic data highlights will include:

Mon: NZ Credit card Spending, Japan Holiday, BuBa Monthly Report, Chicago Fed National Activity Index

Tue: RBA’s Debelle Speech, Japan Holiday, UK Inflation Report Hearing, BOE Governor Bailey Speech, CBI Distributive Trade Survey – Orders, US Richmond Fed Mfg Index, Existing Home Sales, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory , Fed Chair Powell Speech

Wed: Global Preliminary Markit Mfg/Services/Composite PMIs (Australia, Japan, China, EU, UK, US), RBNZ Interest Rate Decision, Statement, ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting, US House Price Index, EIA Weekly Crude Stocks Change, Fed’s Mester Speech

Thur: NZ Trade Balance, BOJ Minutes, SNB Interest Rate Decision/Statement, German IFO; Business Climate/Current Assessment/Expectations, US weekly jobless claims, New Home Sales, Kansas Fed Mfg Activity,  BOE Governor Bailey Speech, Fed’s Williams Speech

Fri: UK Consumer Confidence, Public Sector Net Borrowing Requirements, BOE Quarterly Bulletin, US Durable Goods Orders,

Market moves, in brief:

FX: DXY 93.00 (+0.10%)

Bonds: US10Y; 0.695% (+1.68%), German 10Y; -0.486% (+1.16%), UK 10Y; 0.178% (-2.04%), Australian 10Y; 0.899% (+4.84%), NZ 10Y; 0.553% (-1.52 %), China 10Y; 3.116% (-1.19%)

Stock Indices: DJI; -0.88%, S+P; -1.12%, NASDAQ; -1.08%, EUStoxx50; -0.99%, FTSE100; -0.71%, Shanghai Composite; +2.07%, ASX200SPI: -0.80%

Metals: Gold $1950 oz (+0.29%), Silver $26.77 oz (-1.00%), Copper $3.1050 lb (+0.81%), Iron Ore $126.40 per tonne (NYMEX) (+1.01%),

Oil: WTI $40.85pb (-0.16%)

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.1844
Res  1.1865  1.1890  1.1915
Sup  1.1825  1.1800  1.1775
USDJPY: 104.58
Res  104.85  105.10  105.35
Sup  104.25  104.00  103.75
GBPUSD: 1.2919
Res  1.2980  1.3035  1.3090
Sup  1.2875  1.2820  1.2760
USDCHF: 0.9111
Res  0.9120  0.9135  0.9150
Sup  0.9100  0.9085  0.9070
AUDUSD: 0.7291
Res  0.7305  0.7325  0.7345
Sup  0.7280  0.7260  0.7240
NZDUSD: 0.6757
Res  0.6770  0.6785  0.6800
Sup  0.6740  0.6725  0.6710
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P.fs: 3314.93
Res  3340.00  3365.00  3390.00
Sup  3295.00  3270.00  3250.00
DJ30.fs: 27593.00
Res  27755.00  27935.00  28095.00
Sup  27440.00  27300.00  27165.00
SPI200.fs: 5834
Res  5850  5865  5880
Sup  5815  5800  5785
XAUUSD: 1950.46
Res  1960.00  1970.00  1980.00
Sup  1935.00  1925.00  1915.00
XAGUSD: 26.83
Res  27.00  27.15  27.30
Sup  26.65  26.50  26.35
WTI.fs: 40.85
Res  41.50  42.50  43.50
Sup  40.35  39.35  38.40

Trend Table – Outlook

For our weekly outlook, check out the video here:

EURUSD USDJPY GBPUSD USDCHF AUDUSD NZDUSD
1 Hour Turning Neutral Bullish Divergence Neutral – Turning Lower? Neutral – Turning Higher? Turning Neutral Turning Lower?
4 Hour Neutral Oversold – Turning higher? Turning Neutral Turning Neutral Turning Neutral Possible Topping Formation
1 Day Turning Neutral Turning Lower Turning Neutral Turning Neutral Turning Neutral Turning Neutral
1 Week Possible Topping Formation Neutral – Turning Lower? Possible Topping Formation Possible Basing Formation Up Turning Higher
DXY S+P ASX200 GOLD SILVER OIL_WTI
1 Hour Turning Higher Turning Lower Bullish Divergence Turning Neutral Neutral – Turning Lower? Turning Lower
4 Hour Turning Neutral Down Turning Lower Neutral Neutral Possible Topping Formation
1 Day Neutral – Turning Higher? Turning Neutral Neutral Turning Neutral Turning Lower? Neutral – Turning Higher?
1 Week Possible Basing Formation Possible Topping Formation Turning Neutral Overbought – Turning Lower? Up – Overbought Turning Neutral
EURJPY EURGBP GBPAUD AUDJPY EURAUD AUDNZD
1 Hour Neutral – Turning Higher? Neutral – Turning Higher? Turning Neutral Turning Neutral Neutral – Turning Higher? Turning Higher
4 Hour Turning Higher Neutral – Turning Higher? Turning Neutral Turning Lower? Neutral – Turning Higher? Down
1 Day Turning Lower? Turning Neutral Possible Basing Formation Turning Neutral Turning Neutral Turning Neutral
1 Week Possible Topping Formation Turning Neutral Turning Neutral Possible Topping Formation Turning Neutral Possible Topping Formation

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