20 Mar: Stocks stabilise, US$ higher – again. Oil recovers from lows. PBOC in focus, Friday.

20 Mar: Stocks stabilise, US$ higher – again. Oil recovers from lows. PBOC in focus, Friday.

Thursday was another chaotic session, with the US$ Index (DXY) reaching a 3 year high and with WTI recording its best day ever (+24%), while the stock markets had a volatile ride, although by recent activity it they were relatively stable and closed mostly higher, between +0.5% (S+P) and 2.5% (Nasdaq).

The dollar reached new highs as demand for cash continued at a time when investors are concerned about potential liquidity issues, despite the latest efforts from the Fed to calm investor fears. The commodity currencies took a major dive yesterday, particularly after the RBA moved to cut rates, but have since recovered some lost ground, while in the US session it was the turn of the Euro to come under pressure in dropping 200bp as the coronavirus issue in Europe continues to accelerate. The Jpy and the Chf were sold heavily as the stock markets recovered, diminishing safe haven-demand, while Sterling was volatile but remains near levels seen 24 hours ago.

Stockmarkets managed to post gains on Thursday in both Europe and in the US, halting the recent steep losses as policymakers around the world took further emergency actions to try to help financial markets cope with the current economic damage from the coronavirus.

Oil prices rebounded from their lowest level in 18 years, with their largest one-day percentage gain on record, extending the recent turbulent price action as the price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia ripples around the world.

Gold and Silver were volatile but ended more or less unchanged on the day.

The main event for Friday will be the monthly rate setting due from China at which the PBOC seem likely to announce a small easing move in order to prop up the collapsing economy. Elsewhere the calendar is more or less empty, with just the German PPI(exp -0.1%mm) and the UK Public Sector Net Borrowing Requirements (exp GBP 0.85bio – February) due from Europe, while the US will see the February Existing Home Sales (exp +0.7%mm). Have a good weekend.

Economic data highlights will include:

Fri: China Interest Rate Decision, NZ Credit Card Spending, German PPI, EU Current Account, UK Public Sector Net Borrowing Requirements, Consumer Inflation Expectation, BOE Quarterly Bulletin, US Existing Home Sales,

Market moves, in brief:

FX: DXY 102.70 (+1.75%)

Bonds: US10Y; 1.144% (-3.71%), German 10Y; -0.197% (+13.70%), UK 10Y; +0.717% (-10.09%), Australian 10Y; 1.490% (+23.25%), NZ 10Y; 1.780% (+2.040 %), China 10Y; 2.771% (-0.42%)

Stock Indices: DJI; +0.95%, S+P; +0.47%, NASDAQ; +2.30%, EUStoxx50; +2.85%, FTSE100; +1.40%, Shanghai Composite; -0.98%, ASX200: +3.01%

Metals: Gold $1472 oz (-0.91%), Silver $12.10 oz (+0.97%), Copper $2.153 lb (+0.09%), Iron Ore $89.97 per tonne (NYMEX) (-0.52%),

Oil: WTI $27.68 pb (+23.96%)

EURUSD: 1.0686
Res  1.0700  1.0735  1.0770
Sup  1.0620  1.0580  1.0545
USDJPY: 110.69
Res  111.00  111.30  111.70
Sup  110.50  110.10  109.70
GBPUSD: 1.1486
Res  1.1550  1.1610  1.1675
Sup  1.1470  1.1445  1.1400
USDCHF: 0.9846
Res  0.9900  0.9920  0.9940
Sup  0.9840  0.9810  0.9785
AUDUSD: 0.5758
Res  0.5820  0.5905  0.5965
Sup  0.5700  0.5635  0.5555
NZDUSD: 0.5703
Res  0.5725  0.5765  0.5800
Sup  0.5655  0.5625  0.5590
S&P.fs: 2386.05
Res  2460.00  2610.00  2535.00
Sup  2335.00  2260.00  2185.00
DJ30.fs: 19616.00
Res  19955.00  20310.00  20790.00
Sup  19515.00  19170.00  18765.00
SPI200.fs: 4936
Res  5000  5050  5100
Sup  4880  4840  4780
XAUUSD: 1472.17
Res  1480.00  1500.00  1490.00
Sup  1465.00  1455.00  1445.00
XAGUSD: 12.11
Res  12.30  12.70  13.10
Sup  11.65  11.25  10.85
WTI.fs: 25.91
Res  27.25  28.80  30.00
Sup  24.60  23.40  22.00
1 Hour Down – Oversold Up – Overbought Turning Neutral Possible Topping Formation Turning Neutral Turning Neutral
4 Hour Down Turning Higher Possible Basing Formation Up Oversold – Turning higher? Neutral – Turning Higher?
1 Day Down Up Down Up Down Down
1 Week Neutral – Turning Lower? Neutral Turning Lower? Neutral – Turning Higher? Down Turning Lower


1 Hour Possible Topping Formation Turning Neutral Turning Neutral Turning Neutral Neutral – Turning Higher? Neutral – Turning Higher?
4 Hour Up Bullish Divergence Bullish Divergence Turning Neutral Turning Higher? Bullish Divergence
1 Day Up Down – Oversold Down – Oversold Down Down Down – Oversold
1 Week Neutral – Turning Higher? Down Down Turning Lower Neutral – Turning Lower? Down


1 Hour Turning Neutral Possible Basing Formation Possible Basing Formation Possible Topping Formation Possible Basing Formation Turning Neutral
4 Hour Turning Neutral Turning Lower Turning Lower Oversold – Turning higher? Turning Lower? Turning Higher
1 Day Turning Neutral Up Possible Topping Formation Down Up Turning Neutral
1 Week Neutral Neutral – Turning Higher? Neutral – Turning Higher? Down Up Turning Lower?

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