16 Jan: Stocks firm, US$ soft after US/China sign Phase 1 trade agreement. German CPI, US Retail Sales ahead.

16 Jan: Stocks firm, US$ soft after US/China sign Phase 1 trade agreement. German CPI, US Retail Sales ahead.

 

US stocks were generally positive on Wednesday although the major indices ended the session below new intraday record highs, while the US$ was pretty much unphased, after the US/ China signed their Phase 1 trade agreement. The biggest move in the FX markets came in the Swiss Franc, which jumped higher on political news from Russia, dragging the Euro higher with it.  Prime Minister Medvedev announced his government’s resignation, in a move that was arranged in order to give the President, Vladimir Putin, room to carry out changes to Russia’s constitution in order to increase the powers of both the prime minster and the cabinet. Elsewhere it was a fairly mute session with the main action being seen in Gold, which rallied by around 0.7% as safe haven demand saw buying interest after the US left some tariffs intact on China despite today’s historic trade deal.

In terms of data, the US Empire State Manufacturing general business conditions rose to 4.8 in January, up from 3.5 and beat expectation of 4.1, while the US PPI rose by 0.1% mm, 1.3% yy in December, versus expectation of 0.2% mom, 1.2% yy.

Thursday will begin with the NZ Electronic Card Retail Sales (Dec – exp -0.2%mm, +2.1%yy), Australian Home Loans (Nov; exp +0.4%mm)/Investment Lending for Homes and the Japan PPI (Dec; exp 0.2%mm, 0.9%yy).  From Europe comes the German CPI/HICP (Dec; CPI, exp 0.5%mm, 1.5%yy; HICP, exp 1.5%yy) the ECB Minutes  for the December Meeting and the UK,BOE  Q4 Credit Conditions Survey, while from the US we get the December Retail Sales (exp 0.3%mm, Control Group +0.4%mm), Import/Export Index, November Business Inventories (exp -0.1%), NAHB Housing Market Index (exp 75), the Philadelphia Fed Mfg Survey (exp 3.9) and weekly Jobless Claims (exp xxx%). The Fed’s Bowman will be speaking. Have a good day.

Economic data highlights will include:

Thur: NZ Electronic Card Retail Sales, Japan PPI, Monday, Australian Home Loans, Investment Lending for Homes, China House Price Index, German CPI/HICP, UK BOE Credit Card Survey, ECB Minutes, US Retail Sales, Philadelphia Fed Mfg Survey, Jobless Claims, Business Inventories, NAHB Housing Market Index

Market moves, in brief:

FX: DXY 97.23 (-0.16%)

Bonds: US10Y; 1.782% (-1.95%), German 10Y; -0.201% (-17.8%), UK 10Y; +0.683% (-8.91%), Australian 10Y; 1.221% (-3.00%), NZ 10Y; 1.518% (-0.59 %), China 10Y; 3.131% (+0.05%)

Stock Indices: DJI; +0.16%, S+P; +0.02%, NASDAQ; -0.17%, EUStoxx50; -0.16%, FTSE100; +0.27%, Shanghai Composite; -0.54%

Metals: Gold $1556 oz (+0.67%), Silver $17.01 oz (1.19%), Copper $2.8625 lb (-0.38%), Iron Ore $94.59 per tonne (NYMEX) (-0.25%),

Oil: WTI $58.05 pb (-0.12%)

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.1149
Res  1.1165  1.1180  1.1200
Sup  1.1125  1.1110  1.1095
USDJPY: 109.91
Res  110.20  110.45  110.70
Sup  109.70  109.35  109.00
GBPUSD: 1.3025
Res  1.3040  1.3060  1.3080
Sup  1.3015  1.3000  1.2980
USDCHF: 0.9636
Res  0.9660  0.9690  0.9720
Sup  0.9625  0.9600  0.9570
AUDUSD: 0.6902
Res  0.6920  0.6935  0.6950
Sup  0.6885  0.6870  0.6855
NZDUSD: 0.6608
Res  0.6630  0.6655  0.6675
Sup  0.6595  0.6570  0.6545
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P.fs: 3289.28
Res  3295.00  3305.00  3315.00
Sup  3280.00  3270.00  3260.00
DJ30.fs: 29008.00
Res  29080.00  29150.00  29220.00
Sup  28935.00  28860.00  28785.00
SPI200.fs: 6951
Res  6970  6985  7000
Sup  6935  6915  6900
XAUUSD: 1554.27
Res  1560.00  1570.00  1580.00
Sup  1545.00  1535.00  1525.00
XAGUSD: 17.98
Res  18.15  18.25  18.40
Sup  17.80  17.65  17.50
WTI.fs: 57.94
Res  58.65  59.35  59.95
Sup  57.45  56.90  56.25
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