US stocks were generally positive on Wednesday although the major indices ended the session below new intraday record highs, while the US$ was pretty much unphased, after the US/ China signed their Phase 1 trade agreement. The biggest move in the FX markets came in the Swiss Franc, which jumped higher on political news from Russia, dragging the Euro higher with it. Prime Minister Medvedev announced his government’s resignation, in a move that was arranged in order to give the President, Vladimir Putin, room to carry out changes to Russia’s constitution in order to increase the powers of both the prime minster and the cabinet. Elsewhere it was a fairly mute session with the main action being seen in Gold, which rallied by around 0.7% as safe haven demand saw buying interest after the US left some tariffs intact on China despite today’s historic trade deal.
In terms of data, the US Empire State Manufacturing general business conditions rose to 4.8 in January, up from 3.5 and beat expectation of 4.1, while the US PPI rose by 0.1% mm, 1.3% yy in December, versus expectation of 0.2% mom, 1.2% yy.
Thursday will begin with the NZ Electronic Card Retail Sales (Dec – exp -0.2%mm, +2.1%yy), Australian Home Loans (Nov; exp +0.4%mm)/Investment Lending for Homes and the Japan PPI (Dec; exp 0.2%mm, 0.9%yy). From Europe comes the German CPI/HICP (Dec; CPI, exp 0.5%mm, 1.5%yy; HICP, exp 1.5%yy) the ECB Minutes for the December Meeting and the UK,BOE Q4 Credit Conditions Survey, while from the US we get the December Retail Sales (exp 0.3%mm, Control Group +0.4%mm), Import/Export Index, November Business Inventories (exp -0.1%), NAHB Housing Market Index (exp 75), the Philadelphia Fed Mfg Survey (exp 3.9) and weekly Jobless Claims (exp xxx%). The Fed’s Bowman will be speaking. Have a good day.
Economic data highlights will include:
Thur: NZ Electronic Card Retail Sales, Japan PPI, Monday, Australian Home Loans, Investment Lending for Homes, China House Price Index, German CPI/HICP, UK BOE Credit Card Survey, ECB Minutes, US Retail Sales, Philadelphia Fed Mfg Survey, Jobless Claims, Business Inventories, NAHB Housing Market Index
Market moves, in brief:
FX: DXY 97.23 (-0.16%)
Bonds: US10Y; 1.782% (-1.95%), German 10Y; -0.201% (-17.8%), UK 10Y; +0.683% (-8.91%), Australian 10Y; 1.221% (-3.00%), NZ 10Y; 1.518% (-0.59 %), China 10Y; 3.131% (+0.05%)
Stock Indices: DJI; +0.16%, S+P; +0.02%, NASDAQ; -0.17%, EUStoxx50; -0.16%, FTSE100; +0.27%, Shanghai Composite; -0.54%
Metals: Gold $1556 oz (+0.67%), Silver $17.01 oz (1.19%), Copper $2.8625 lb (-0.38%), Iron Ore $94.59 per tonne (NYMEX) (-0.25%),
Oil: WTI $58.05 pb (-0.12%)
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