16 Apr: Dire US data/earnings reports send stocks lower. US$ firm on safe haven demand. Australian Jobs data ahead. German CPI later.

16 Apr: Dire US data/earnings reports send stocks lower. US$ firm on safe haven demand. Australian Jobs data ahead. German CPI later.

US stockmarkets are around 2% lower at the start of Thursday trade on the back of some dismal economic data and Q1 earnings reports which underlined the extent of damage from the coronavirus outbreak. Stocks were led lower by Bank of America and Citigroup, who followed the lead of JP Morgan a day earlier, in reporting a slump in Q1 profits. On top of this, the March Retail Sales figure plunged by 8.7% (exp -8.0%), while all of the monthly Industrial Production, Manufacturing Output,  NAHB Housing Market Index and New York State Empire Mfg Index came in at historic lows. On the brighter side, the retail sales control group – which has a larger impact on US GDP – rose by 1.7%, compared with a forecast for a 2% decline.

In the currency markets, the US$ regained some favour on the back of some safe-haven demand in a delayed reaction to the dire estimates of the impact of the pandemic on the world economy. The Aud$ got hit particularly hard as the risk-off sentiment grew through the sessiot  but has bounced off its session lows, while the Euro also saw a recovery from a steep drop, amid reports that Germany plans to reopen parts of its economy as soon as Monday.

Elsewhere, Oil had another tough session, falling to as low as 19.18 pb, an 18 year low, after the EIA reported a record jump of 19.3 million barrels in crude stockpiles for last week, 65% above forecasts and brought inventory gains in US crude to nearly 50 million over the past three weeks. WTI has since managed a mild recovery, to close in NY back above 20.00, while the metals were choppy, without much direction albeit lower by 0.7% (Gold)/2%(Silver) at the end of the day.

Looking ahead, the Australian Unemployment data for March is unlikely to be positive with an increase in the headline rate to 5.5% coupled with the loss of 40K jobs and a participation rate of 65.9%. Later on, German CPI (CPI, exp 0.1%mm, 1.4%yy; HICP, exp 1.3%yy) will be focus ahead of the figure that has now taken on the main event of the week, the US initial Jobless Claims which are expected to reach 5.5 mio.  Also due will be the US Housing Starts (exp 1.3 mio) and Building Permits as well as the Philadelphia Fed Mfg Survey (exp -30). Have a good day.

Economic data highlights will include:

Thur: Australian Consumer Inflation Expectation, Unemployment,  German CPI, EU Industrial Production, US Building Permits, Housing Starts, Philadelphia Fed Mfg Survey, Jobless Claims

Market moves, in brief:

FX: DXY 99.57 (+0.72%)

Bonds: US10Y; 0.636% (-15.21%), German 10Y; -0.462% (-22.20%), UK 10Y; +0.303% (-9.58%), Australian 10Y; +0.923% (-0.56%), NZ 10Y; 1.012% (+4.01 %), China 10Y; 2.551% (-0.06%)

Stock Indices: DJI; -1.86%, S+P; -2.20%, NASDAQ; -1.44%, EUStoxx50; -3.75%, FTSE100; -3.34%, Shanghai Composite; -0.57%, ASX200: -2.97%

Metals: Gold $1715 oz (-0.65%), Silver $15.48 oz (-1.97%), Copper $2.30 lb (-1.29%), Iron Ore $84.22 per tonne (NYMEX) (-0.04%),

Oil: WTI $20.16 pb (-2.45%)

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.0914
Res  1.0940  1.0965  1.0990
Sup  1.0890  1.0855  1.0830
USDJPY: 107.49
Res  107.70  107.90  108.10
Sup  107.30  107.10  106.90
GBPUSD: 1.2530
Res  1.2580  1.2615  1.2650
Sup  1.2495  1.2465  1.2430
USDCHF: 0.9644
Res  0.9660  0.9680  0.9700
Sup  0.9625  0.9605  0.9585
AUDUSD: 0.6318
Res  0.6335  0.6360  0.6385
Sup  0.6300  0.6280  0.6255
NZDUSD: 0.5995
Res  0.6015  0.6035  0.6055
Sup  0.5975  0.5955  0.5935
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P.fs: 2774.30
Res  2800.00  2825.00  2850.00
Sup  2750.00  2725.00  2700.00
DJ30.fs: 23350.00
Res  23520.00  23690.00  23835.00
Sup  23250.00  23100.00  22910.00
SPI200.fs: 5349
Res  5380  5410  5440
Sup  5310  5280  5250
XAUUSD: 1717.75
Res  1725.00  1735.00  1745.00
Sup  1710.00  1700.00  1690.00
XAGUSD: 15.46
Res  15.60  15.75  15.90
Sup  15.30  15.15  15.00
WTI.fs: 20.25
Res  20.70  21.20  21.75
Sup  19.75  19.20  18.60

.

EURUSD USDJPY GBPUSD USDCHF AUDUSD NZDUSD
1 Hour Neutral – Turning Higher? Turning Neutral Neutral – Turning Higher? Turning Neutral Turning Higher? Turning Higher?
4 Hour Turning Neutral Neutral Turning Neutral Turning Neutral Turning Lower Neutral – Turning Lower?
1 Day Neutral – Turning Higher? Neutral – Turning Lower? Neutral – Turning Higher? Turning Neutral Neutral – Turning Higher? Up
1 Week Turning Neutral Neutral Neutral – Turning Lower? Turning Neutral Possible Basing Formation Possible Basing Formation

 

DXY S+P ASX200 GOLD SILVER OIL_WTI
1 Hour Turning Neutral Turning Neutral Turning Neutral Neutral Turning Neutral Turning Higher?
4 Hour Neutral – Turning Higher? Turning Lower? Turning Lower Turning Lower Turning Neutral Turning Lower?
1 Day Neutral – Turning Lower? Up Up Up Up Neutral
1 Week Turning Neutral Possible Basing Formation Oversold – Turning higher? Turning Higher Turning Neutral Down

 

EURJPY EURGBP GBPAUD AUDJPY EURAUD AUDNZD
1 Hour Neutral – Turning Higher? Turning Neutral Turning Neutral Neutral – Turning Higher? Turning Neutral Turning Neutral
4 Hour Neutral – Turning Lower? Turning Neutral Turning Higher Turning Lower? Turning Higher? Possible Topping Formation
1 Day Neutral – Turning Lower? Neutral – Turning Lower? Neutral – Turning Lower? Up Neutral – Turning Lower? Up
1 Week Neutral Neutral – Turning Higher? Possible Topping Formation Possible Basing Formation Possible Topping Formation Neutral – Turning Higher?

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