14 Jan: Stocks higher, US$ mostly steady, Gold, Oil lower. Empty calendar today ahead of the US CPI, later.

14 Jan: Stocks higher, US$ mostly steady, Gold, Oil lower. Empty calendar today ahead of the US CPI, later.

 

US stockmarkets climbed to new record highs on Monday, ahead of the start of the Q4 corporate reporting season which begins in earnest later today, while also being underpinned by growing enthusiasm towards the signing of a partial US/China trade deal, which is due to take place on Wednesday.

The FX markets were relatively benign although the Jpy is weaker as safe- haven demand diminished, while Sterling was heavy after a growing number of BOE officials begin to lean towards voting for a UK rate cut this month. The UK GDP dropped -0.3% mm in November, well below expectation of 0.0% and further tests for Sterling will be seen later this week when the UK CPI and retail sales are released. Otherwise the FX markets were fairly rangebound although the Euro received some support because the German 10Y bund yield headed for least negative closing level since May (-0.160%).

The main moves of the day were again seen in Gold (-0.75%) and Oil (WTI;-1.9%) as tensions continue to ease in the Middle East, while base metals moved in the opposite direction, as hopes for a positive trade outcome underpin prices (Iron Ore +0.5%, Copper +1.57%).

The coming session will begin with the NZ Q4 Business Confidence and the November Building Permits, which will be closely followed by the  Japan Eco Watchers Survey, Current Account and Trade Balance and the China Trade Balance for December (exp +US$48 bio, Export +3%, Imports +9.6%). Europe is taking the day off, with no major release at all from the EU/UK but things will warm up in the US session when the December CPI is due (exp 0.2%mm, 2.0%yy). The US Monthly Budget Statement will also be released, while the Fed’s Williams will be speaking.

In the reporting calendar, results will today be seen from Citigroup, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Delta Air and United Air, amongst many others. Have a good day.

Economic data highlights will include:

Tue: NZIER Business Confidence, Building Permits, Japan Eco Watchers Survey, Current Account, Trade Balance, China Trade Balance, US NFIB Business Optimism Index, CPI, Monthly Budget Statement, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory

Market moves, in brief:

FX: DXY 97.34 (-0.01%)

Bonds: US10Y; 1.847% (+1.49%), German 10Y; -0.160% (+31.75%), UK 10Y; +0.776% (+12.50%), Australian 10Y; +1.215% (-4.08%), NZ 10Y; 1.476% (-1.15 %), China 10Y; 3.120% (+0.16%)

Stock Indices: DJI; +0.20%, S+P;+ 0.55%, NASDAQ; +0.88%, EUStoxx50; -0.26%, FTSE100; +0.39%, Shanghai Composite; +0.75%,

Metals: Gold $1550 oz (-0.78%), Silver $18.00 oz (-0.66%), Copper $2.8595 lb (+1.63%), Iron Ore $94.03 per tonne (NYMEX) (+0.50%),

Oil: WTI $58.05 pb (-1.88%)

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.1139
Res  1.1150  1.1165  1.1180
Sup  1.1125  1.1110  1.1095
USDJPY: 109.91
Res  110.00  110.30  110.65
Sup  109.60  109.15  108.65
GBPUSD: 1.2996
Res  1.3010  1.3030  1.3055
Sup  1.2975  1.2960  1.2940
USDCHF: 0.9704
Res  0.9720  0.9745  0.9770
Sup  0.9685  0.9665  0.9645
AUDUSD: 0.6908
Res  0.6920  0.6935  0.6950
Sup  0.6895  0.6880  0.6865
NZDUSD: 0.6634
Res  0.6660  0.6685  0.6715
Sup  0.6615  0.6590  0.6560
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P.fs: 3284.03
Res  3290.00  3300.00  3310.00
Sup  3275.00  3265.00  3255.00
DJ30.fs: 28843.50
Res  28890.00  28985.00  29080.00
Sup  28770.00  28680.00  28575.00
SPI200.fs: 6861
Res  6875  6890  6905
Sup  6850  6835  6820
XAUUSD: 1550.10
Res  1560.00  1570.00  1580.00
Sup  1540.00  1530.00  1520.00
XAGUSD: 18.00
Res  18.15  18.30  18.45
Sup  17.90  17.75  17.60
WTI.fs: 58.12
Res  58.65  59.35  59.95
Sup  57.85  57.25  56.55

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